Sure Prediction For Today, Wednesday 3rd July 2019

Holland needed to improve last time out and improve they did, as they beat the Italians by two goals to nil. Unlike in the last-16, going forward, Sarina Wiegman-Glotzbach’s women played with purpose, while they also upped the intensity, which allowed them to put their opponents under pressure by creating plenty of opportunities. Such an approach also meant that Holland prevented the Italians from getting overly serious in the final third. By creating 1.42 expected goals for and conceding 0.67, the European champions deserved their win.

With an encouraging performance under their belts, Holland will fancy themselves to reach a second consecutive major final, but they may need to continue finding improvement, as Sweden are no mugs.

Against the Canadians in the last-16, Sweden looked sturdy, though it was easy to question whether they could be as strong against top opposition. We now know the answer. Having held an excellent Germany side at bay, the Swedes proved that they’ve got what it takes to tussle with the best, so they’ll be confident of upsetting a Dutch side that has been very up and down at this tournament.

Not only did Sweden manage to frustrate some very good German attackers, but they also became the first team to really get at the Germans, who went into the game against the Swedes having conceded zero goals in France. The fact that Sweden both created 1.86 expected goals for and emerged with an expected goal difference of +0.56 was impressive.

As the current European champions, Holland come into this match as favourites, though it’s easy to feel that Sweden hasn’t been given enough respect in the early betting.

For starters, Peter Gerhardsson’s women have looked tactically disciplined during the knockouts, while they’ve also looked very good on the break, which bodes well against a Dutch side that has struggled to guard against the counter-attack. Furthermore, Sweden, who’ve faced better opposition that the Dutch in the knockouts, did an excellent job of nullifying a German attack which, at the very least, is just as strong as Holland’s forward-line.

All in all, when we consider the knockout performances of each side, it looks as though there’s less between the two sides than the current prices suggest, so a small play on the Swedes to repeat their quarter-final antics is hard to resist. Our prediction is a win or a draw for Netherlands.