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Juventus Turin vs Olympique Lyonnais, Champions League – Matches, At Juventus Stadium. Time: 20:00
There’s an interesting question hanging over this game, is it better to be match fit or well-rested? Juventus finished their campaign just last weekend, lifting the Serie A title despite a disappointing end to the campaign.
While they engaged in some rotation, their players looked leggy towards the end of the campaign after packing fixtures into a short period. That includes newly crowned Serie A MVP Paulo Dybala, who is a doubt for this clash.
Meanwhile, Lyon has played just 90 minutes of competitive action in just shy of five months. However, they were given a full summer preseason to prepare for the 2020/21 campaign, with the Ligue 1 season starting in a couple of weeks. That seemed to pay off in their Coupe de la Ligue final clash with PSG, so will that freshness edge this clash in Turin?
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The tie is incredibly well balanced, with Lyon taking a 1-0 lead into this second leg in Italy. The French side will be desperate to protect that, but they come into this clash likely sensing an opportunity with Juve making a poor finish to their restart.
After losing the first leg of a Champions League knockout match, Juventus have progressed from five of their 11 previous ties. If they fail to progress this time around, Maurizio Sarri may be left fearing for his job. While he guided Juve to the Italian title, they certainly didn’t impress during the Italian run in.
Juventus won just twice across their last eight league games, a run which saw them lose four times. They conceded 17 times in that run, while they have kept just one clean sheet across their last 10 matches. In their previous eight title-winning campaigns, Juve never shipped more than 30 goals. This season the champions have let in 43, one of the highest by any Serie A winner.
Sarri has weakened the defence that carried Juve to European progress under Max Allegri’s watch. Given their need to win by two clear goals, that defensive vulnerability really harms the Serie A side’s chances of making it into the last eight of this competition. After all, they’ve not scored more than three goals across their last 17 Champions League games, scoring exactly three on just three occasions.
While Juve are the focus, we shouldn’t overlook the talent the visitors bring to this game. Since the start of last season, only Memphis Depay (10) has been involved in more Champions League goals for Lyon than 22-year old Houssem Aouar (7 – 1 goal and 6 assists). The Frenchman has as many assists as Lionel Messi in the competition during this period (6). Meanwhile, Moussa Dembele notched 16 goals in 24 Ligue 1 starts last season.
However, the big threat we saw recently from Lyon was their defence. They managed to hold Neymar, Icardi and Di Maria when they met PSG in the League Cup final. While it was their return to action, Lyon kept a clean sheet with 0-0 draw through 120 minutes only to lose out on penalties. While they didn’t lift the trophy, that result offers encouragement for the French side ahead of this trip.
It should worry Juventus, who were caught out in the same way as PSG. When they returned to action in the Coppa Italia, Sarri’s side toiled past a 10-man Milan with a 0-0 draw at home. They followed that up by being held 0-0 by Napoli in the final, losing on penalties. They’re capable of being frustrated, while those results came before the cracks in their defence started to show.
The Italians may have pushed for a more expansive style in Serie A last term, but they still won by a single goal in 14 of their 26 wins. Lyon’s poor Ligue 1 season brought 10 defeats, with nine of those coming by a single goal. The visitors will be confident of keeping it tight here, but they can capitalise on Juve’s recent struggles.
With the hosts struggling for wins and Lyon looking sharp enough to shut them down, we see the French side pulling off an upset in our predictions. Juve aren’t racking up the goals in this competition and they also aren’t keeping clean sheets. Their attack is capable of being swarmed, while Lyon head into this one having scored in eight of their last nine Champions League trips.
We’re backing Lyon with a +2 handicap, meaning we get them on the Double Chance market along with a narrow single goal defeat, which would take them through if the French side get an away goal. Recent form leaves the hosts vulnerable, while Lyon has proven capable of holding out for a result. However, we feel Juventus can grind out a win here.
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