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Freiburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Germany – Bundesliga, At Schwarzwald-Stadion. Time: 19:30
Freiburg played their part in a six-goal thriller in midweek as they relinquished the lead twice at Eintracht Frankfurt, eventually drawing the game 3-3 thanks to a late winner from substitute Timothy Chandler.
Despite the 3-1 lead they held with 20 minutes remaining, nobody can argue that Frankfurt didn’t deserve something from that game. They were on top for the majority of the 90 minutes and squandered a host of chances, but their late equaliser leaves Freiburg with just one win from their last seven league games.
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This continues the slow slide that Freiburg have been on in this second half of the season. They lost just two of their opening 12 Bundesliga matches, but have been on the wrong end of defeat eight of their last 16 outings.
While Freiburg may have missed the chance to win on Tuesday night, but Bayer Leverkusen’s evening was even worse. Die Werkself were stunned by an incisive Wolfsburg team that hammered them 4-1 at the BayArena to end their six-game unbeaten streak.
The top four contenders looked a completely different team to the one that beat Borussia Monchengladbach 3-1 at the weekend, but Kai Havertz and company will be itching to bounce back on Friday and reclaim the fourth place. The visitors have won nine of their last 12 league games and have the quality to put Freiburg to the sword, but their defensive performances have been found lacking.
This usually points us towards the goals market, and our predictions for Friday are no different. Bayer Leverkusen has seen an average of 3.17 goals per Bundesliga game this season, with nine of their last 11 ending with at least three goals having been scored.
Freiburg has shown their own defensive vulnerabilities in the second half of the season too, keeping just two clean sheets in their last 16 outings. After their goal feast in Frankfurt on Tuesday, backing over 2.5 goals looks a great value offering for this one.
This might not be an easy match for Leverkusen as most people will predict, Freiburg has shown to be very competitive at home and we expect them to give Leverkusen a tough time. Our prediction is a +2 goals Handicap advantage for Freiburg.
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