Sure Prediction For Today, Wednesday 4th September 2019

If they’re to lay down a serious challenge for promotion, then it’s probably fair to say that Peter Taylor’s men are going to need to make Victoria Road much more of a fortress. Dagenham has lost two of their opening four home games this term. They’ve scored seven goals in those four games, which is pleasing, though they’ve conceded a worrying total of nine. Therein lies the problem.

By adopting an expansive approach, Dagenham has not just scored goals, but have generally looked like a threatening and creative team, as an average of 1.77 expected goals for suggests. Unfortunately, by playing in such a way, the Daggers have found it tough to keep teams at bay, as an average of 1.62 expected goals against suggests.

Fortunately, the hosts are up against a Bromley side that hasn’t performed all that well on the road, despite what results would have us believe. The visitors, who’re the only unbeaten side in England’s fifth tier, are no mugs, though if we scratch beneath the surface, deficiencies start to appear.

On their travels, Bromley has won three and draw one, scoring six and conceding three in the process. However, it’s easy to feel that they’ve profited from good fortune. Last time out on their travels, the Ravens beat Maidenhead by two goals to one, but the fact that they produced just 0.91 expected goals for and emerged with an expected goal difference of -1.48 tells us that they weren’t exactly worthy winners. Frankly, if Bromley is to continue getting positive results away from home, then an average of 0.88 expected goals for will need to improve, as will their average expected goal difference of -0.39.

Dagenham has given plenty away at home, but as we can see above, they’ve also offered a lot going forward. Consider this in conjunction with the fact that Bromley have been far poorer than results suggest on the road and the hosts start to look overpriced. As a side averaging a very pleasing 1.77 expected goals for at home, against opposition averaging 0.88 for away from home, Dagenham look to have a better chance of succeeding than the current odds would have us believe. Therefore, a punt on the home win offers punters some value.

‘Correct Score’ punters are pointed in the direction of a 2-1 win for the Daggers, who despite having a dodgy back-line have simply created far more at home than Bromley have on the road. However, 0ur main prediction is Over 1.5 goals.