Sure Prediction For Today, Wednesday 12th August 2020

It’s also a clash in terms of preparation. Paris SG has played two competitive games in the last five months (Coupe de France and Coupe de la Ligue finals on 24th and 31st July respectively) whilst Atalanta has played 13, winning nine of those games (D3 L1). Juventus did beat Lyon across 90 minutes in similar circumstances at the weekend, so could Atalanta dump PSG out?

In terms of resources, Atalanta are obviously the outsiders here. However, the likely absences of Kylian Mbappe and Marco Verratti along with Angel Di Maria’s suspension level the playing field.

Atalanta has won their last four UEFA Champions League games, the longest current run alongside Bayern Munich. They have also scored eight goals in their two knockout games so far (vs Valencia), as many as they did in their six group games. They are acclimatizing to European football, while they are well-suited to this format and now have experience behind closed doors.

There’s also the fact that PSG has some kind of mental block around this stage of the competition. They are in the quarter-finals for the first time since 2015/16. They haven’t reached the final four of the competition since 1994/95 – that season, they were knocked out by AC Milan (0-3 agg.), the only previous time they have faced Italian opposition in the knockout stages of the competition.

Since the 2014/15 season, PSG’s record after the group stages makes for grim reading. They’ve played 16 games, winning only five times and losing eight. Despite spending big money on defenders and star forwards, they’ve conceded 30 and scored 23 in return. Given that in six games against Italian sides in the Champions League PSG has never won (D4 L2) or even kept a clean sheet, they should ship even more.

We do expect this to be a high scoring affair. Atalanta has conceded more goals than any other remaining team in this season’s competition (16 in eight games). They also have the highest Expected Goals Against tally among the final eight (16.7).

Meanwhile, Paris SG has scored in each of their last 32 UEFA Champions League games, currently the longest run in the competition. The last time they failed to find the net was against Manchester City in the quarter-finals of the 2015/16 edition.

While the French side are missing players, they do have one of the most consistent Champions League performers. Neymar has scored 12 goals in his last 16 knockout games in this competition. In fact, since 2014/15, only Cristiano Ronaldo (33), Lionel Messi (16) and Robert Lewandowski (14) have found the net on more occasions.

As a result, we kick-off our predictions here by backing Neymar to score. He finally has what he wanted, he’s PSG’s, main man. With the pressure on him, we expect the Brazilian to deliver, so he’s our anytime goalscorer pick.

However, PSG’s defensive frailties in big games are a concern, especially with a creaking Thiago Silva holding together a less than stellar defence. Atalanta fired in over two goals per game across the previous Serie A campaign, scoring 47 times in 19 away trips. Given that they’ve hit 13 goals in their last four European games, our prediction is both teams to score.