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Deportivo Alaves vs Real Sociedad, Spain – LaLiga, At Estadio de Mendizorroza. Time: 18:30
Real Sociedad looked more than a little ring rusty in their first La Liga fixture back after the postponement when they were held to a 1-1 draw at home to regional rivals Osasuna on Sunday.
Having gone behind on 29 minutes to an Adrián penalty, Real equalized just after the hour mark through Mikel Oyarzabal, though the hosts couldn’t find a successful route to victory in the contest’s final half-hour.
With their pursuit of a top-four finish hitting a bump, Real travel to take on Basque neighbours Alaves on Thursday evening in another derby duel that could prove to navigate.
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Deportivo restarted their 2019/20 campaign in hugely disappointing fashion when they fell to a 2-0 reverse at bottom club Espanyol, however, they have proven a far tougher nut to crack at the Mendizorrotza Stadium this season.
Los Babazorros, thanks largely to their defensive performances, was beaten just three times in 14 La Liga assignments on their own patch between August and March, and Alaves shipped a total of just 11 goals in those matches during the same period.
However, just a handful of the division’s clubs have plundered fewer goals at home than Alaves this term, who are averaging just 1.2 goals per 90 minutes on their own turf in 2019/20.
Unsurprisingly, that combination of robust defending and an underwhelming attacking output has led to a low-number of low-scoring contests at the Mendizorrotza Stadium.
Under 2.5 goals were registered in 64% of Alaves’ home matches overall since the campaign kicked off 10 months ago, and we expect their latest test there against Sociedad to be similarly tight.
While Real’s ranks are swollen with technically gifted attackers, they have sometimes come up short in away fixtures, hitting the net one or fewer times in five of their last seven on the road and in 11 of their 19 games as the visiting team overall this season.
With 15th placed Alaves likely to approach Thursday’s game in a defensive manner, especially with the first-choice stopper Pacheco suspended, and Real’s lack of bite on their travels established, the under 2.5 goals market holds plenty of promise, while our correct score prediction points towards a 1-1 draw.
Sociedad’s run of losing three of their last four La La away games points to a weakness that Alaves will feel they can exploit to take a share of the spoils, and having drawn 1-1 in 50% of their last six home matches, our prediction is a +2 Goals Handicap advantage for Alaves.
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