Sure Prediction For Today, Monday 1st July 2019

Djurgarden have been collecting points left, right and centre of late, as they’ve won four on the bounce. They’ve impressed offensively during that time, scoring a pleasing ten goals, though the most impressive aspect of their game in recent weeks has been their ability to keep teams out, keeping a clean sheet in three of their last four, conceding just a single goal.

On their own patch, Monday’s hosts have been particularly tough to get the better of, as they’ve won three, drawn two and lost just one of their six games at Tele2 Arena. Not only have they avoided defeat in 83% of their home games, but Djurgarden has posted some encouraging underlying figures, averaging 1.39 expected goals for and conceding an average of 0.88. They’ve also outperformed their opponents in terms of expected goals in five of their six matches in front of a home crowd.

In contrast, Kalmar has found it tough to create more than their opponents on the road. Scorers of just four goals in six away games, Monday’s visitors have found it tough to get the ball in the net on their travels. An average of 1.2 expected goals for would suggest that they ought to have scored a few more, though recent figures of 0.96, 0.31 and 0.82 don’t exactly scream creativity.

At the other end, Kalmar has surrendered an average of only 0.83 goals, which is far from displeasing, though an average of 1.5 expected goals against tells us that they’re surrendering a more than reasonable amount of chances. Unsurprisingly, Kalmar has been bettered in terms of expected goals in four of their six travelling matches this season.

In the betting, since Djurgarden’s home efforts have been considerably better than Kalmar’s performances on the road, the hosts are easy to fancy, though backing them to simply come out on top may not be the best option. Instead ‘Djurgarden to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ catches the eye.

Djurgarden’s efforts at home suggest that they can get the better of a visiting side that is without a goal in three on the road, though as they average 1.67 goals for and 1.39 goals for, they’re not the sort of side to run riot. What’s more, for all the visitors offer a limited threat on the road, they’re yet to receive a heavy beating. Our main prediction for this match is Under 3.5 Goals.