Sure Prediction For Today, Thursday 20th June 2019

Not only was Depor good at home in the semis, but they’ve been useful on their own patch pretty much all season long. Winners of ten matches at Ciudad Deportiva de Riazor, Thursday’s hosts lost only three matches at home before the playoffs began.

They also ended the regular campaign with the fourth-best home defensive record, having shipped an average of just 0.73 goals. Add in the fact that they scored an average of 1.59, created an average of 1.71 expected goals for and conceded only 0.75, it’s fair to say that La Coruna is a very useful side on home soil.

Mallorca only just scraped through the semis having won 2-0 at home and having lost 1-0 away, though based on their overall efforts, they deserved to make it through. At home, they gave next to nothing away, as they cruised to a 2-0 win, while they were the better side in the away leg too, despite losing. Last time out, although they lost 1-0 at Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Mallorca created 1.28 expected goals for and gave away only 0.79. Such numbers are promising.

However, during the regular campaign, playing away from home wasn’t exactly a specialty of Thursday’s visitors. They finished the season with only the 12^th best away record, while their numbers aren’t great either. Before the playoffs began, Mallorca averaged only 0.82 goals away from home, while they shipped an average of 1.18. What’s more, their average expected goal difference on the road was a rather displeasing -0.26.

Given that Depor has generally done better at home than Mallorca have on the road, it’s not overly hard to envisage a home win, though with the betting the way it is, there’s a better option.

At the prices, ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ makes plenty of appeals. Depor will be happy to play an attacking game at home, which should open things up. After all, their first leg against Malaga produced numerous chances and six goals.

Add in the fact that the pair created lots of opportunities, sharing no less than 36 shots and 3.63 expected goals when Mallorca visited this ground less than four weeks ago and it becomes easy to feel that the current price available is somewhat generous. Our prediction is a home win or draw for Deportivo La Coruna.