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Spal vs Fiorentina, Italy – Serie A, At Stadio Paolo Mazza. Time: 17:00
After a few strong seasons in the top flight, SPAL departs Serie A after a dreadful campaign. The bottom side has been doomed for most of the campaign, while they’ve been relegated for the past few weeks. Nothing has managed to spark them into life, so there’s little hope of them restoring any pride on the final day.
Meanwhile, Fiorentina has rallied in the weeks since the restart. They’ve jumped into the top half of the table following their impressive streak. Only three sides have picked up more points across the last eight games than the Viola.
They can steal tenth place with three points on the final day, which looks quite likely given how poor the hosts have been this season. Our predictions back Fiorentina for a comfortable win.
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The visitors crushed Bologna 4-0 in midweek, a comfortable win which continued their rise under Beppe Iachini. Fiorentina had been searching for a new manager, but they could keep faith with Iachini given how he’s transformed them. Having lost only three games since the restart, the Viola are now an incredibly tough side to beat.
They have a great chance of adding to their good form, having impressed in recent clashes between these two sides. Fiorentina lead by 17 wins to seven against SPAL in Serie A, with 13 draws. The visitors are also unbeaten in their last six meetings against SPAL (W4 D2).
SPAL has lost 27 league games this season, only Pescara (28 in 2012/13) and Benevento (29 in 2017/18) have lost more in a single season in the history of Serie A. Since the restart, the hosts have been beaten nine times in 11 games. Their home record has been dreadful, as they’ve lost 12 of 18 games at this ground – giving them the fewest points of any home side in the division.
SPAL has conceded 14 times across their last four home games, while Fiorentina has won by two clear goals in three of their last five games. The visitors have won by at least two goals in four of their six away victories, while the hosts have lost half of their home defeats by two clear goals or more.
Given that SPAL has scored the fewest goals and conceded the third-most, we expect Fiorentina to win by a couple of goals. Our prediction is an away win for Fiorentina.
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