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Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg, Germany – Bundesliga, At Opel Arena. Time: 14:30
With only four matches remaining this season, the battle at the bottom is intensifying in the Bundesliga and neither Mainz nor Augsburg are yet guaranteed safety.
Mainz are closer to the drop zone but pulled off a shock 2-0 win away to Eintracht Frankfurt last time out and should be fancied to take maximum points when they welcome Augsburg to the Opel Arena.
The Bavarian visitors have been hopeless on the road this season and have lost seven of their previous eight away matches in the Bundesliga – the other being an anomalous win away to out-of-form Schalke.
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They have in fact lost nine of their 15 games on the road in the Bundesliga this season with only Frankfurt and Union Berlin (both ten) having lost more.
Goals in particular have been an issue. Florian Niederlechner has impressed with 11 strikes in 29 league appearances this season but beyond the forward, they are short of attacking quality.
That vulnerability has been exposed on their travels with Augsburg failing to score in their last five away defeats to Union Berlin, Frankfurt, Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, and Hertha Berlin. And that enhances appeal about backing Mainz come out on top with a second successive win. Their home record does not read much better than Augsburg’s record on the road but the form book favours Mainz.
They have lost only two of their last seven matches, showing they can hold their own against teams near the bottom with draws against Union Berlin, Cologne, and Fortuna Dusseldorf as well as a home win to nil against strugglers Paderborn.
Their matches have generally been low-scoring contests too – beyond Swedish star Robin Quaison, who has 12 league goals to his name, they do not have many goals in them.
Five of Mainz’s last seven league fixtures have featured under 2.5 goals and that is worth considering when predicting the correct score.
Four of Mainz’s eight league successes this season have been by two-goal margins, with their last two wins against Paderborn and Frankfurt both finishing 2-0 and that’s the direction we’re leaning for our correct score prediction.
Augsburg has failed to score in six of their 15 away matches in the Bundesliga and failure to do so once again in this game could nudge them closer to the bottom three. Our prediction is Over 1.5 Goals.
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