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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Mainz 05, Germany – Bundesliga, At Griffin Park. Time: 14:30
Bayer Leverkusen’s Champions League aspirations took a huge hit when they were beaten by Hertha Berlin at the Olympiastadion last weekend and they need results to go their way on the final day if they are to finish in the Bundesliga’s top four.
Die Werkself must beat Mainz at the BayArena and hope that Hertha does them a favour at the same time by defeating top-four rivals Borussia Monchengladbach.
If Gladbach draw and Leverkusen win, an inferior goal difference is almost certain to condemn Peter Bosz’s team to a fifth-place finish and a season of Europa League football, so only a win and defeat for their rivals is likely to be enough.
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Mainz had looked in trouble heading into the final stretch of the campaign but Rouven Schroder’s men won three of their last matches – against Eintracht Frankfurt, Borussia Dortmund, and Werder Bremen – as they confirmed their Bundesliga status for another season.
Leverkusen, and in particular young star Kai Havertz, impressed in the early stages of the Bundesliga restart as they won their opening two matches following the resumption.
However, home defeats against Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich put them on the back foot in their bid for Champions League football and a draw at Schalke followed by the loss in Berlin are likely to prove their undoing.
With Gladbach expected to gain the point they need, Leverkusen are up against it but they should keep fighting until the end as they bid to finish the season on a high – they also have a German Cup final with Bayern to look forward to.
Mainz, meanwhile, has done everything they needed to do to survive and ultimately stayed up thanks to the victory over Bremen. They may not be at full tilt now that the pressure is off.
While a top-four finish remains unlikely, Leverkusen should still be expected to win this contest and the betting backs up the suggestion that they will finish the Bundesliga season with a victory.
There’s little value in backing at Leverkusen victory but there is every chance of an entertaining contest between two teams who know how to score goals and that’s what we’re predicting here.
Leverkusen, blessed with the attacking talent of Havertz, Kevin Volland, and Moussa Diaby, have scored at least twice in six of their last seven home league games and should be expected to put the Mainz defence under pressure.
The visitors, meanwhile, have found the net in all four away matches since the restart and should be expected to get on the scoresheet, particularly as Leverkusen have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight league games. Our prediction is a home win for Bayer Leverkusen.
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Germany – Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Mainz 05 – 1 Won