Sure Prediction For Today, Tuesday 21st January 2020

Can Carlo Ancelotti continue his strong start at Goodison Park? The former Chelsea boss has lost one of six league games since taking over, a 2-1 defeat at Manchester City. The Italian has already faced Newcastle in those six games, winning 2-1 at St James’ Park in December. Can they follow that up with another victory on Tuesday?

While the Marco Silva reign ended badly for the Toffees, things are starting to turn around at Goodison Park. Everton are unbeaten in their last four home league games (W3 D1), keeping a clean sheet in each of their last three. That’s encouraging form, which has left them only four points shy of the top seven, so European football isn’t out of the question.

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Newcastle are level with Everton on 29 points, with the visitors enjoying a 1-0 victory at home to Chelsea on Saturday. However, Newcastle is less of a threat on the road given their patchy results on their travels this season, having lost seven times in 11 matches in the league. They are also poor going forward on the road, averaging less than a goal per trip.

While Ancelotti has been gaining results, the methods haven’t exactly been ideal. In typical Italian fashion, Ancelotti has got his team organised. That’s not entirely down to his approach to the game, it’s a necessary approach given Everton’s troubles going forward. The hosts have scored just 26 times in 23 matches this term, while they’ve seen under 2.5 goals in six of their last seven at home.

Overall this term, just 27% of Everton’s home matches have seen three or more goals. All of their home meetings with sides below them have finished with fewer than three goals scored, while five of Newcastle’s last six trips have seen fewer than three goals. We see these two low-scoring sides producing another close game, so under 2.5 goals is our pick here.

Everton has won 11 of their last 16 Premier League meetings with Newcastle, following their victory at St James’ Park. The Toffees have lost just one of their last 15 home league games against Newcastle (W10 D4). That run includes four wins in five for Everton, conceding just once in their last four clashes with the Magpies here.

Overall this season, Everton have won by a single goal in 75% of their league victories, while Ancelotti has claimed consecutive 1-0 wins at Goodison, so we’re backing a home win draw no bet option as our prediction for this match.