Sure Prediction For Today, Tuesday 14th May 2019

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West Brom vs Aston Villa, England – Championship, At The Hawthorns. Time: 20:00

With 16 minutes to go at Villa Park on Saturday, West Brom was coasting towards a huge victory. However, a dramatic last 15 minutes has left them as rank outsiders in this tie. They need to turn around a 2-1 defeat in the first leg, while they have to do it without forward Dwight Gayle after his red card.

It was an impressive result for Villa, who made a switch in approach to get themselves in pole position to reach Wembley. Will they book a place in the playoff final for the second season running?

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West Brom went under the radar in their Championship campaign, while they nearly pulled off a major shock against a Villa side who have been widely tipped to go up. Now the Baggies are left with a huge challenge at the Hawthorns on Tuesday night.

Their record in front of goal at home this term suggests they have the firepower to turn it around, but the absence of Gayle is a blow to that. Jay Rodriguez is the only striker West Brom can call upon here, while they have major defensive issues troubling them.

Villa’s changes at the weekend saw Conor Hourihane come into a holding role, something which allowed Jack Grealish to take a bigger role going forward. That obviously helped Villa, while it set out a blueprint for midweek.

That change should be made to their starting line-up here, which would allow Villa more counter-attacking threat, along with a midfield who can hold possession as they try to maintain their lead. Given that they’re ahead and facing a West Brom side who like to attack but struggle at the back, Villa should be playing on the counter here.

The visitors can be confident of edging the tie. 16 of the last 18 sides to win the first leg of a Championship play-off semi-final have gone on to progress through to the final, with the only exceptions being Derby County last season (vs Fulham) and Leicester City in 2012/13 (vs Watford).

Meanwhile, West Brom is going to really miss Gayle. The Baggies have just a 33% win rate without Gayle in all competitions this season (four wins from 12 games), compared to a 54% win rate with him in the side (22 wins from 41 games).

We expect West Brom to still have a presence in attack – they scored in 96% of their home league games this season – but their big game record could let them down. The Baggies beat one of the top seven here last season, shipping 12 goals in that time.

Meanwhile, Villa’s only defeats away to the top 10 came at the top two. The visitors scored in all of those clashes, finding the net in 89% of their league games. With that in mind, we think both teams to score is a great value, as it landed in 83% of West Brom’s home outings. Our prediction is a +2 Goals Handicap advantage for West Brom.

Match preview credit: www.freesupertips.co.uk

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14-05 14:30
Rwanda – National Football League
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Germany – A-Junioren-Bundesliga
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Croatia – 1. HNL
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