Sure Prediction For Today, Sunday 7th July 2019

Hammarby will certainly be glad that this match is on home soil, as home is certainly where the heart is for Stefan Billborn’s men. On the road, Sunday’s hosts have tended to come up short, but they’ve thrived in front of their own fans, winning four and drawing two of their six home matches, scoring a whopping 14 goals and conceding five in the process.

As far as recent home performances are concerned, Hammarby come into this fixture in good shape. They only drew last time out at Tele2 Arena, though as they posted 2.0 expected goals for and emerged with an expected goal difference of +0.72, they performed well. In terms of underlying numbers, Saturday’s hosts have been very strong at home, as they average 2.08 expected goals for and have conceded an average of only 0.96.

While the hosts have thrived in terms of results at home, Falkenbergs have found life tough on the road, winning none of their six travelling matches. The fact that the visitors have claimed just two points away from home during the current campaign says it all really.

Going forward, they have got involved, scoring seven goals, but they’ve simply not been good enough at the back, surrendering no less 13. Somewhat surprisingly, Falkenbergs have kept a clean sheet on their travels, but they’ve conceded at least twice in four of their other five, conceding at least three in three of those.

However, while the basic numbers tell us that Falkenbergs have been poor on the road, if we dig a little deeper it’s easy to feel that they’ve generally played better than results suggest. Sunday’s visitors are averaging 1.7 expected goals for on their travels, while they’ve surrendered 1.35. If they can maintain such numbers, then results should improve.

From a betting point of view, ‘Hammarby to Win & Both Teams to Score’ stands out as a viable option. Having offered more at both ends of the pitch, the hosts enough about them to overcome a visiting side that has shipped an awful lot of goals on the road, though the visitors shouldn’t be discounted going forward.

After all, they’re averaging a pleasing 1.7 expected goals for and have netted in defeat away against the likes of Ostersunds, Sundsvall and Norrkoping. Our prediction is a home win for Hammarby