Sure Prediction For Today, Sunday 7th April 2019

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Augsburg – 1899 Hoffenheim, Germany – Bundesliga, At Augsburg Arena. Time: 14:30

Augsburg became just the third team to lose to relegation-bound Nurnberg last weekend, as they slumped to a 3-0 defeat. On the balance of play, they were a bit unlucky, but they failed to resist when push came to shove, which ultimately cost them.

Sunday’s hosts were also left wanting more during the week, as they were beaten by Leipzig (in extra time) in the DFB Pokal. After a couple of upsetting results, Manuel Baum’s men will be looking to bounce back.

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The main reason as to why Augsburg got beat last weekend was that they failed to keep things tight at the back, which is something that Baum’s men are starting to make a habit of doing. Prior to their game against Nurnberg.

Sunday’s hosts beat Hannover at this venue, but even then, they gave too much away at the back, as they shipped 2.04 expected goals, which tells us that they were lucky to concede just once. In fact, Augsburg has been presenting their opponents with quite a lot of chances for some time, as their recent expected-goals against numbers of 2.04, 1.69, 2.02, 1.91 and 2.08 suggest.

At the very least, Augsburg has shown themselves to be capable when it comes to scoring goals at home. Baum’s side has scored in each of their last nine at Augsburg Arena, while they’ve scored at least twice in each of their last four in front of a home crowd, scoring at least three in two of those. Such numbers bode well ahead of a game against a Hoffenheim side that has given plenty away on the road.

Going forward, Hoffenheim can be a very, very good side, which is why they’ve scored the third highest number of goals in the Bundesliga this season. However, away from home, they’ve given a tremendous amount away, so much so that they’re still without an away clean sheet at this late stage of the campaign. Sunday’s visitors have shipped an average of 1.85 goals, while they’ve shipped an average of 2.08 expected goals. Such numbers will fill the hosts with confidence, that’s for sure.

Given that both teams have given plenty away in their respective home and away matches, it would be easy to support a bet such as ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ though even with the numbers offered up by these two, such a selection appears to represent little value at a very skinny price. Instead, the bet that really stands out is ‘Augsburg to Score Over 1.5 Goals’.

The hosts do come into this match off the back of two disappointing efforts, but their recent scoring record at home is impressive. Add in the fact that Hoffenheim continues to look very weak defensively on the road, which is why they’ve shipped at least twice in five of their last eight traveling matches, and a bet on the hosts to bag a couple of goals makes plenty of sense, especially at the current prices. Our main prediction is Over 2.5 Goals.

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