Sure Prediction For Today, Sunday 23rd December 2018
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Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05, Germany – Bundesliga, At Rhein-Neckar-Arena. Time: 18:00
Hoffenheim’s season has been a roller-coaster ride that reached a plateau in recent weeks. Julian Nagelsmann’s men are unbeaten in nine – the longest such run in the German top flight – but draws in each of their last five – albeit over a tricky run of fixtures – has seen them drop out of the top six.
Goals haven’t been too much of a problem – youngster Reiss Nelson, Brazilian Joelinton and World Cup finalist Andrej Kramaric have all been key – but their defence must be a concern to the young boss. Nagelsmann’s men have kept just one clean from their last 11 across all competitions.
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November and early December have seen Mainz make a massive turnaround. 11 points from a possible 21 (W3 D2 L2) – you can forgive defeats to Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig – has pushed them comfortably into mid-table in the run-up to the winter break and, most importantly, the 05ers also seem to have addressed their “goal problem”.
Although Mainz remains one of the lowest scoring sides in the division – the 05ers have only managed 16 goals in 16 league outings – they have scored at least one goal in each of their last eight Bundesliga outings.
For us though, the value looks to be in this one ending low scoring for the following reasons: for a start, the pair’s numbers have dwindled in the run-up to Christmas. Hoffenheim and Mainz have each scored one goal or fewer in four of their last five competitive outings (D4 L1) and their season-long stats also favour this trend – under 3.5 goals have been scored in 75% of Hoffenheim’s home and 57% of Mainz’s away matches this term.
As mentioned before, Nagelsmann’s style of football hasn’t been leading to much success in the past weeks either, so there’s a chance he mixes things up with a more defensive approach on Sunday too.
Only Schalke (16) and Wolfsburg (17) have seen fewer goals in their away matches this season than Mainz (18), and going off expected goals (xG – 19) we can see that this isn’t down to luck either.
From the same stats we can actually see that the 05ers are even over-performing on the road, and if xG was used to determine their results and present away form, they would have the second-worst travelling record in the Bundesliga.
Hoffenheim’s underlying numbers only further reduce Mainz’s chances of getting a result on Sunday – no team in the German top flight has recorded more shots on target! Our prediction TSG Hoffenheim win (Draw No Bet).
Recommended sure prediction for today (Sunday 23rd, December 2018)
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23-12 12:00
Spain – Primera Division
Valencia CF – SD Huesca – (Draw no bet) CF Valencia Won
23-12 18:00
Germany – Bundesliga
Hoffenheim – Mainz 05 – (Draw no bet) Hoffenheim Won
23-12 13:30
Germany – 2. Bundesliga
Paderborn 07 – SV Darmstadt – over 1.5 Won
23-12 12:15
Netherlands – Eredivisie
FC Utrecht – Ajax Amsterdam – x2 & over 1.5 Won
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23-12 14:30
Netherlands – Eredivisie
De Graafschap – Vitesse Arnhem – over 1.5 Won
23-12 14:30
Netherlands – Eredivisie
ADO Den Haag – Feyenoord Rotterdam – over 1.5 Won
23-12 20:00
Belgium – Pro League
Zulte Waregem – Royal Charleroi – over 1.5 Won
23-12 13:15
Scotland – Premier League
St Johnstone FC – Rangers FC – x2 Won
23-12 18:30
Portugal – Primeira Liga
Benfica Lisbon – Sporting Braga – 1x Won
23-12 14:30
Italy – Serie C
Rende Calcio 1968 – Viterbese – 1x & under 4.5 Won
23-12 16:30
Italy – Serie C
Catanzaro 1929 – Siracusa Calcio – 1x & under 4.5 Won
23-12 16:30
Italy – Serie C
Monopoli 1966 – FC Rieti – 1x & under 4.5 Won
23-12 14:30
Italy – Serie C
Juve Stabia – Matera Calcio – 1 Won
23-12 14:30
Italy – Serie D
Prato 1908 – San Gimignano Sport – 1x & under 4.5 Won
23-12 15:00
Italy – Serie D
Audace Cerignola – FC Francavilla – 1x Won
23-12 16:30
Italy – Serie D
US Avellino 1912 – US Latina – 1x Won
23-12 14:30
Italy – Serie D
Sff Atletico – Sef Torres Calcio – 1x Won
23-12 12:30
India – I-League
Mohun Bagan AC – Lajong – 1x & over 1.5 Won
23-12 17:00
CAF Champions League
ASEC Mimosas – Stade Malien – 1x & under 4.5 Won
23-12 16:00
CAF Confederations Cup
Enugu Rangers – USM Bel Abbes – 1x Won
23-12 14:30
Rwanda – National Football League
Kiyovu Sports – AS Muhanga – 1x Won
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23-12 14:30
Rwanda – National Football League
Bugesera FC – Espoir FC – 1x Postponed
23-12 14:30
Italy – Serie D
Reggio Audace FC – Adrense 1909 – 1x Lost
23-12 14:30
Italy – Serie C
Calcio Catania – Cavese 1919 – 1x & under 4.5 Lost
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